COVID-19 Discussion (No Politics)

Some interesting data about vaccination rates among police.

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We have some smart people on here. Check my logic and math on this.

My wife and I have been both fully vaccinated, her with Pfizer, me with Moderna. I want to convince my wife that I can start playing basketball again with my group of friends, unmasked of course. And I want to figure out the odds of 1- me catching COVID, and 2- then giving it to her.
Going off of known numbers, and being conservative with many factors, including not taking into account friends that are vaccinated or have had COVID, and wouldn’t come to play if they feel sick, and assuming 1:1 transmission rate. (By the way, this group has played most of the last year without me, and hasn’t seen an outbreak in the group).

Utah estimated active COVID cases= 8185 (per KSL on 5/4)
Utah Population= 3,206,000 (per google)
Chances of encountering an individual with active COVID- 0.0025 or 1 in 393

Times 15 friends that play= 0,0382 or 1 in 26 (surprisingly low)

Moderna Vaccine Efficacy= 94% (per google)
Chance of me catching COVID= 0.00406 or 1 in 2463 (and then it would likely be a mild case)

Pfizer Vaccine Efficacy= 95% (per google)
Chance of me giving COVID to my wife= 0.000004 or 1 in 250,000 (and then it would likely be a mild case)

I was told there’d be no math.

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Lol. What, you haven’t read any of UFS or DataUte’s posts in this thread?

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To me the risk is small enough to be mitigated with care (trusting that the others would not take chances if they’ve been exposed) and knowing that even if you caught it it’s likely to be mild. Playing basketball is super healthy (need a middle-aged, out of shape player with a lousy shot and ball handling but great defense?). It’s more dangerous to not take care of your health.

I’m not happy with how the country is approaching vaccines as a whole but I feel that most of the people who need to be careful have already been given plenty of opportunity to vaccinate, and at some point I’m just not going to assume responsibility for the ones who are stubborn. The rest of us have to live our lives.

I didn’t crunch numbers for this opinion.

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This is what I’d tell my son/brother: You’re probably more likely to pull a hammy. You did the right thing and got vaccinated — now go out and play with your friends to your hearts content.

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This is the place I’ve come to also. I don’t balk at wearing a mask, however.

SLC Police reached a vaccination rate of over 80% FYI

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This is a long but interesting read from The Atlantic. It’s much less political than the title suggests.

While the article references the NE quite a bit, the left coast seems nuts, especially Oregon, which will be pure gold for someone needing to study it as part of their dissertation.

@chrisrenrut as of today, all restrictions have been lifted (though likely too early).

The state says go play.

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Stretch, and start with 30 minutes or less. I didn’t play for years because of an ACL surgery (skiing), and when I finally played again, I tore my Achilles about an hour in.

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Unless you’re going to a school, state owned building, SL county owned building or a SL City owned building, then mask mandates are still in effect (including liquor stores)

I tore my medial meniscus playing basketball when I was about 45. I was mystified as to why it happened. I asked my orthopedist, and he said, “How often do you play basketball?” I told him about every three or four months. He said, “That is the problem. At your age, our tendons and cartilage become less flexible, and if you are not playing basketball or whatever other sport you want to engage in regularly, at least two or three times a week, you’re more likely to injure that cartilage.”

Oh well. Advice too late for me and my right knee. I had it repaired arthroscopically, and years later developed arthritis in the same knee, and now I am expecting to have my knee replaced in the next year or two. At the time my knee was arthroscopically repaired, it was not widely understood that messing around with the knee joint that way inevitably produces arthritis later.

Moral of the story: If we’re going to participate in vigorous activity in our 40s or later, we need to be sure we do it regularly so that our aging, stiffening cartilage isn’t too stressed to handle the activity. This is why I retired from my firm’s lawyer league basketball team. I accepted reality and saved my energy for kicking kids off my lawn. :older_man:

I still do daily aerobic walking for exercise, recumbent bicycle, and Pilates. But I am being kind to my body.

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Don’t jinx me!

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Yeah, I’m trying to convince a higher, much more demanding authority than the state.

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Cthulhu?

Thanks to @LAUte for posting that article from The Atlantic. I read the journal and read that article. It makes some great points. So folks are storm troopers over their security blanket.

I live in Central Oregon, has anyone looked at the growth rates in Covid19 infection here? The state has been in the news lately because Covid19 infections have been rising (at least in Deschutes County) at 7% week over week for some time now. The state recently required another lock down in our county. If you take apart the data, the group leading these infections are 20-29 in age. Furthermore, the variant driving this is the most contagious, obviously. But deaths have risen and hospitalizations have risen to ~92% of capacity, however that is determined.

In that context, a friend of mine yesterday spoke to me about what is underway in Florida, to essentially say, okay, you are on your own. He thought the move when we are so close was insane.

You don’t.

They do.

Possibly just a coordinated stunt protest, but this is mystifying. There are, what, a few more weeks left in the school year?

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My wife teaches a preschool, the kids 3-4 years old do not even care. There’s been a number of times where my kids will hop in the car and keep wearing their masks because they don’t even notice they are wearing them. Other times in the car maybe between places I’ll tease them about wearing them and they’ll say, “Eh, its just easier to leave them on sometimes.”

These are clearly kids feeling oppressed and abused by masks. I think it is what you make it. Masks were never a big deal in my household so they aren’t for our kids. We aren’t militant about wearing them and there are certainly times where it is uncomfortable or inconvenient to wear them but it barely registers as a sacrifice to them. It’s like wearing a coat in the cold.

Society has spent decades teaching our kids to be self-centered and worse we are that way ourselves. It is no surprise this literally smallest of sacrifices for the common good is getting people worked into a frenzy.

Two of my kids go to the Granite School District, so this parent says stay the course school board.

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