COVID-19 Discussion (No Politics)

Always nice to have something hopeful to share.

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Covid19 Update, January 14. Data dump. Most charts annotated.

CoVid19 Top 11 Deaths Country Jan 14.21

US moved up one to 11# now globally in mortality per one million. Not a good look for the made great USA.

Now a chart series you know all to well:

Known:

Plus forward views:

Models:

Mortality:

The US may be on the cusp of a rollover, and that is how I model it. More and more vaccinations will ensure and that is essential. In the meantime, take care of your community and consider that in the broadest sense possible. Be a true patriot, sacrifice for our nation, for our medical soldiers, for every single person you see, family or not, young and old, regardless of color.

Be safe, stay safe.

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An interesting perspective on what’s happening in the Golden State.

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The vaccines could not have come at a more opportune time.

I’m begging somebody to correct my ignorance because it has me worried.
If there’s a new strain how is the vaccine that was developed for the old strain going to work on this new one?

I believe the vaccine contains mRNA that codes a receptor on the virus, producing an immune response to that particular receptor. If the new strain has the same receptor, it will also be targeted. I’m not a scientist, so don’t quote me on that.

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The mutation doesn’t actually change the virus, it just makes it more efficient at infecting people.

Because of this the vaccines should still work as the disease itself isn’t really different.

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“Oh, when will they ever learn…” PP&M

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NEWS ALERT
U.K. Covid-19 Variant Likely to Become Dominant U.S. Strain in March, CDC Says

A highly transmissible coronavirus variant that was first identified in the U.K. is spreading rapidly in the U.S. and likely to become the dominant strain circulating domestically in March without measures to slow it, federal health authorities said.
Health officials called Friday for increasing mitigation efforts, like wearing masks and social distancing, to curb the spread of the more contagious variant.

The “B.1.1.7” variant had infected at least 76 people in 12 states as of Jan. 13 and threatens to worsen the pandemic in the U.S. in coming months as daily cases and hospitalizations are already at record levels, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a report modeling the potential impact of the variant.

While the new variant doesn’t appear to cause more severe illness, it is more contagious than the currently dominating strain of the coronavirus, the CDC said.

That means it could lead to more hospitalizations and deaths by infecting more people overall, the agency said, exacerbating pressures on health-care systems that are already at or near capacity.

Also, this variant has been detected in Utah, fwiw.

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We got it first in CO! Woohoo?

I don’t know about this source, but with my grad studies in indoor air quality, enjoyed the perspective. Everyone seems that wiping everything down is going to solve everything, but flushing the air, in my opinion, is even more critical. Masks help keep the air clear to start with, but we spend 18 times more time indoors than outdoors and for energy efficiency, we have really tightened up building.

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The long-term impacts of COVID continue to be horrifying.

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How the states stack up. Only a few are succeeding well, so far:

Covid19 Update, January 17th. In the face of really bad news, a ray of light.

Vaccination rollout may be botched but a vaccination rollout is underway. A new RNA mutation of Covid19 is raging now dramatically increasing R-fator contagiousness, but it does so in the face of the vaccination rollout. Warp speed is necessary. Still, the US exceeded 400,000 deaths yesterday and today will record its 25th million known infection. Yet, hospitalizations began to decline in earnest a handful of days go. Bad news, then good news.

Now the US global standing in mortality per one million population:

The US eased to 12th, but not by much. To recast these numbers for every 1,000 Americans, over 1.2 have died this year just from Covid19. The US contains 26% of all known Covid19 cases on earth, and 20% of known deaths. That from a newly made great country.

Now a series of views, all familiar by now, and annotated.

What we think we know:

The really bright spot here is the decline in hospitalizations. But also, as seen in the initial chart, a flattening in growth in new infections.

What we think we know and a forward look:

Modeling to support the forward view:

A rollover in new infections and then in mortality is upon us, I hope.

Mortality:

The initial view is set of MR rate curves derived from MR within five demographic groups view, now extended to 500,000 US deaths, likely to occur in March. The US is now at 402,684 Covid19 deaths, and I’ve read recently that number is an under count. Note the mortality rate (MR) actually rose from 1.66% to 1.67% over the last few days.

The second view uses a 6-day lag between infection and mortality. The 1.77% MR has remained the same for three days, the decline is that slow. Note, in Europe, MR began to climb over the last month or more.

The final view here is MR based not on cumulative infections as in the prior two are but on daily hospitalizations. This MR began to climb in September with kids headed back to school and more indoor activity on cooler weather. The rate moved toward 2.5%, while it has been up and down some, now just above 2.5% as seen. Again, not all deaths involved hospitalizations. Yet this metric of mortality has been slow to demonstrate any meaningful sustained decline, quite unlike the behavior of MR based on cumulative infections.

Be safe, stay safe. The vaccination rollout has begun while the US is far from out of the woods.

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Covid19 Update, Evolution in US mortality rates from Covid19.

New chart:

Okay, four curves of MR. Three are based on infections, one on hospitalizations.

The blue trend is the classic cumulative mortality divided by cumulative Covid19 infections, as recorded.

The red-brown curve is the same, only a six-day lag is incorporated since mortality is a trailing indicator. Read it as mortality today, infections from six days prior.

The violet trend required I smooth the daily data with a 14-day moving average. Then I used the smoothed daily mortality values divided by smoothed daily infection values to calculate MR. This trend moves off of cumulative values.

The final trend in green is mortality rate based on daily mortality divided by daily hospitalizations, from 14 days prior.

Sobering.

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the limited funeral services for my MIL were scheduled for this Friday and Saturday, but have now been postponed because my SIL tested positive (shakes head)

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First off, I am so sorry @sweetgrass. My deepest condolences.

More unfortunate news…

A variant could emerge, then, from the training ground of a chronic infection, with mutations that make the virus better at binding to cells and thus more transmissible. This may be what happened with the U.K. variant. It could also emerge slightly more capable of reinfection. This may be what’s happening in Brazil, where there are already two documented cases of reinfection with the new variant. In a place where many people have already been infected with COVID-19, a variant that is just a little better at evading preexisting immunity will have an advantage. These reinfections might not be serious, and they still might not be the norm, but over time, that variant will win out. The coronavirus is in a constant arms race against our immune system. It will keep evolving.

That means our vaccines may need to evolve with it. But the United States is sequencing only a tiny percentage of its COVID-19 cases. (Standard COVID-19 diagnostic tests probe a few regions of the virus genome, but they don’t sequence the whole thing.) “San Diego is one of the places in the country we’re doing well, and we’re sequencing 2 percent of cases. It’s laughable compared to the U.K. and Denmark,” Andersen said. “And we need to change that.” The sequencing data, when they are collected, are fragmented across individual labs all over the country. What the U.S. needs, Andersen said, is a federal mandate for genomic surveillance. That’s the only way for the U.S. to keep abreast of an ever-changing virus.

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This is not encouraging. And it’s not just about California.