Covid19 Update, November 21. US hospitalizations are surging, now 82,178. They are increasing at an average of 3,600 per day in the last seven days. Increased hospitalizations lead to higher recorded daily deaths, averaging 1,510 per day for the last seven and exceeding 2,000 on November 19 for the first time in months. New daily infections look like the rising flame end of a rocket headed to Mars, now over 12 million infections and yesterday breaking 200,000 new daily reported cases at 203,239. At the present rate of new infections, only 5 to 6 days are needed for each new 1 million new cases. We have turned a corner.
Here are a series of annotated charts showing that "we’re working on mass distribution of the virus,” given the corner we have turned.
The EU appears to have turned a corner. The US, not so much. I think we are seeing space now, stars, black skies. A corner has been turned.
Significant revision and updating to the WorldoMeter data returns the US to the Top 10 in global Covid19 mortality. In a major remix since Wednesday, the US joins six European and three South American countries in this distinguished fraternity.
What we think we know:
Everything is rising and at an accelerated rate. A corner has been turned.
What we think we know and a forward look:
Even as more testing leads to more reported infections, the flawed straight across mortality rates declines at 0.02% per day, now at 2.14%. However, higher infections leads to higher hospitalizations leads to higher daily reported mortality. IHME made a significant upward revision to mortality for January 1st to nearly 340,000. My model also features higher mortality on January 1st of over 330,000. A corner has been turned.
Modeling to support the forward view.
Note the significant revision in the model toward higher Covid19 infections and subsequent mortality. See the modeled plateau in December for new infections, which may end up being another corner (not) turned.
The first chart in this series shows daily mortality – a lagging indicator – plotted against daily hospitalizations 14-days prior. The first trend to mid-June (red) features the steep learning curve by the medical community in treating Covid19 and saving lives. The mid-June to November trend (blue) features a nearly linear trend where mortality is related to degree of hospitalizations. The last seven days are shown in yellow data points. Note the steady and growing daily increase in hospitalizations, remembering that these seven days are two weeks prior. The current hospitalizations are over 82,000 and likely will lead to 2,000 and higher daily deaths over the next two weeks.
The second and third charts show different perspectives on mortality rate (MR). See the annotations.
A corner has been turned…into the dark end of the street. We are so lucky to have great leadership.
This coming week, be thankful for all we enjoy. If you are willing, please also take time to morn those who we have lost this year, and honor those front line warriors who are stressed to the maximum working to get us healthy and save lives. Consider giving them a break. They need it. Do what is best for We The People, help a brotha’ out.
We can turn a corner. We can respect other human beings, our fellow Americans, our community, by wearing a mask and observing appropriate social distancing protocol.
Be safe, stay safe.