COVID-19 Discussion (No Politics)

It’s not big deal and “just the flu” until it affects them personally or someone they love. Then suddenly it’s a pretty damn big deal. Funny how that always seems to happen.

Goes back to the old adage: I don’t know how to convince you to care about other people.

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Covid19 Update, October 17. I think I am in the third wave of weary. But I have not seen the news for the last 4 days except for Covid19 stuff posted here since I was in the Diamond Peak Wilderness in Central Oregon replacing trail signs on the Pacific Crest Trail.

You all know the drill. Here are updated charts in 10 total views beginning with the US versus the world’s other leaders…

We are so great, we are #1 in cumulative Covid19 infections and deaths, while India is threatening on just the cumulative infection front.

What we think we know…

New daily cases are surging, and reported deaths are budging too. Like in the wrong direction, despite heroic work by the medical community.

  1. That and a short forward look…

The US has passed the 8th millionth known infection, moving toward 9 million by Halloween.

  1. Modeling…

New daily infections reflecting the third wave…we should be proud…it could have been worse…what, we are number one. Oh well.

  1. Mortality…

Different ways to calculate mortality rate are shown here. Regardless, thanks to the medical community and seniors who get it. Deaths are not as bad as they could be, no thanks to our leadership. We are not Yemen…

Be safe, stay safe. Consider helping a brotha’ out. Somewhere a long, long time ago in a galaxy far, far way, I heard that united we stand and divided we fall.

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I did a little reading up on this, and he was never dismissive about masks, or opposed to wearing masks. He’s pretty humble about his mistake, which was to believe that the White House was a safe zone when went there for the Amy Coney Barrett event. So I’m not sure how much he has changed his tune. Also, I think the gloating and moralizing that goes on here a when certain people get sick is not a good look.

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A little gripe here. We decided to keep our plans for a much needed vacation after going nowhere outside our little bubble for 7 months and after I had some stressful weeks/months planning integration for a huge acquisition our company conducted that just got approved

We headed to remote parts of Southern Utah including National Parks (Mesa Verde, Capital Reef, Bryce), Monuments (Natural Bridges, Grand Staircase-Escalante), some state parks (Goosenecks, Goblin Valley), and a few other places. We changed plans to avoid the Navajo Nation to respect their request for no visitors, even passing through. We were coming from Colorado. We found fairly few people (Bryce had a more, see below for my gripe) and that many, many people generally had masks with them almost everywhere and when on trails, would slip them on when passing by or close to others (like on overlooks). We did the same, sometimes keeping them on the whole time when there was a more constant stream of people on trails or we were trailing someone for a while.

Our last day, today, we went to Goblin Valley and Little Wild Horse Canyon. Goblin is pretty spread out but didn’t see too many masks there. Little Wild Horse Canyon - we counted 6 people with masks of the several hundred people we saw. They didn’t even have one (like a gaiter or one of their wrist) and no attempt to put one on when passing (except the one guy that loosely pulled his t-shirt over his mouth). I mean, there is no way to distance more than 1 foot in some spots in the slot.

I made a comment to one person and he said something to the effect that the county was green so they didn’t have to (not sure about that). Well, what was it where you came from? Because that’s the probability of having the virus you carry with you.

Outdoor, check. Distance, uncheck, so mask up.

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Your concern is noted.

Some of us are simply very tired of seeing this “it’s nothing” then “I was wrong, it’s really bad…once it directly affects me and mine” scenario play out over and over and over again. Especially among those in power who are making decisions that affect the rest of us.

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Was Chris Christie one of those people? I honestly don’t know.

It remains beyond my comprehension why people are so resistant to such a simple thing as wearing a mask when they are close physically to other people.

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Ugh. I was afraid this would happen.

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24 posts were merged into an existing topic: Politics: I think its time to panic a little about COVID-19 virus

I’ve moved the Chris Christie stuff to politics (I think I got it all) - let’s keep this topic pure. :wink:

And… a reminder to myself as much as anyone else here, but with the election coming up let’s try to keep politics in politics the best we can. And I think we’ve done a good job in general but let’s continue to keep it civil in politics.

If you are wondering why you can’t see political categories, you have to be a donor to participate - which has always felt like a disincentive to donate - but even if you have donated you also have to turn the category on to get notifications. So… you aren’t in complete danger.

Thanks to all for making this board a good place to be.

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Just received word that our 55 yr old friend passed away this morning after getting Covid while recovering from a blood clot in her lung from earlier this year. Wear a damn mask people! Stop treating this virus like it only affects a few people. It can kill anyone! Edit to add: it was a careless worker who brought it into the rehab facility where she was. The worker likely got it from a family gathering but couldn’t remember exactly.

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But we aren’t suppose to be in “The Good Place.” :joy::joy::joy:

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Ha ha. I’ve gone back and forth on the donating…should I so I can see the category…but then I’d see the category…

I do need to toss you guys some bucks anyways. We are moving in Nov and hopefully then will have chilled out and I can skip some avocado toast and pitch in.

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More recently I’ve been providing a Covid19 update on Tuesday and Saturday. This week I am changing that. My new routine will be to post on Wednesday and Saturday.

The Tuesday post was only three days from Saturday but it incorporates all of the distortion to trends from the lack of weekend reporting. The extra day will help smooth that out.

Maintaining the Saturday post allows me to wrap up the week and portray the most important developments in new infections and mortality for the week.

Thank you for your continued support.

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new cases in the U.S. are up 40% since last Monday (deep sigh)

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Holy forking shirt balls. This son of a bench is right!

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This virus is so freaking contagious, what a disaster.

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(Reuters) - Nearly 300,000 more people have died in the United States in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic than would be expected based on historical trends, with at least two-thirds due to COVID-19, a government report released on Tuesday showed, adding that COVID deaths likely were undercounted.

Covid19 Update, October 21. The state of things and a wonder if we are about the turn that corner, finally. We can hope, right?

We all know by now what is coming here in a series of annotated charts. These views are parsed into what we think we know (1), what we think we know and a short forward view (2), modeling to get that forward view (3), and US mortality from this novel virus (4).

  1. What we think we know:

Obviously, as far as new daily infections, the US is experiencing its 3rd wave, post Labor Day and back to school in many areas. We know that at least half of the US states are seeing a growing number of infections and a handful are at record levels.

Mortality however is flattening if not declining. I see a large part of that trend as improvements in medical protocol in a completely stretched medical community, seniors and others doing the right thing to protect themselves, and the fact that most new infections are in the below 45 age group that has a lower mortality rate to Covid19.

  1. What we think we know and a short forward look:

Clearly, a sustained decline in new infections has been slow in coming, but I believe we will get there even before a vaccine. Rural regions are now being the hardest hit. US Covid19 mortality continues to march forward, unfortunately impacting minorities preferentially. At least mortality rates are in decline and the number of daily deaths has flattened somewhat.

  1. Modeling:

I continue to model a turnover in new daily infections. Clearly, should that happen as I model it, mortality will follow. My hope is that this 3rd rise is close to stalling out.

  1. Mortality:

Please read the details, note the difference in how I have calculated US mortality rates (MR) here. Note the first chart in this set uses the flawed straight across rate of cumulative divided by cumulative, as we know. I think it better to view the 6-day lagged mortality rate as being closer to what is happening now.

Now read this:

“We find that the death rate has gone down substantially,” says Leora Horwitz, a doctor who studies population health at New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine and an author on one of the studies, which looked at thousands of patients from March to August.

The study, which was of a single health system, finds that mortality has dropped among hospitalized patients by 18 percentage points since the pandemic began. Patients in the study had a 25.6% chance of dying at the start of the pandemic; they now have a 7.6% chance.

That’s a big improvement, but 7.6% is still a high risk compared with other diseases, and Horwitz and other researchers caution that COVID-19 remains dangerous.

The death rate “is still higher than many infectious diseases, including the flu,” Horwitz says. And those who recover can suffer complications for months or even longer. “It still has the potential to be very harmful in terms of long-term consequences for many people.”

The US continues to lead the world in known Covid19 infections and in deaths, even as the 2.67% SA MR is just under the global average. As we know, 6-day lagged MR has declined since mid-April from ~7.0% of those known to be infected to now moving toward 2.50%.

Also, thank you to @sweetgrass for posting above the timely Reuters article about CDC observations on general US 2020 mortality. We know the US has experienced over 225,000 known Covid19 deaths, yet the sum of data collected and analyzed by CDC reveals about 75,000 more deaths that usual so far. Some of those are likely Covid19 deaths, or in some way related (e.g., suicide). That means not only are Covid19 infections under reported (likely 8 to 15% of the population than the 2.56% reported), so is mortality. Sobering.

Remember, when we are careless by not wearing a mask or observing social distancing, the unintended consequence is how much more stress we place on already over stressed medical personnel.

So, please help a brotha’ out. Be safe, stay safe.

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CNN focuses on Utah hospitilizations

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