COVID-19 Discussion (No Politics)

I wonder how many of these people were going to die anyways…

That was a disappointing article. It doesn’t include any numbers or comparisons. And when they say “doctors”, they interviewed 1 doctor and 1 nurse.

If I’m clicking a link with that headline, at a minimum I’m expecting a comparison between rates of death by suicide before and during quarantine.

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This may, however, lend credence to the possibility that blood thinners can help.

Exactly right.

There are many ways to substantiate or refute this, with a little effort.

Do a records request of law enforcement reports…or, ask the medical examiner or coroner’s office.

San Luis Obispo is seeing less suicides, based off of actual data.

Suicide Decrease In San Luis Obispo County

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Suicide is always tragic and also multifactorial. COVID deaths are linked to a specific viral pathogen and physiological response.

I found it interesting that a while ago there were some reports of strokes from the disease. So if it is a clotting issue I wondered if a blood thinner may be indicated. It would also explain the higher incidence of deaths from those with diabetes and some of the other “odd” effects.

These events are linked high stress situations and can linger long after those events. We’ve seen that in soldiers.

They’ve known for some time some patients are having blood clot issues.

Then you have to start looking at who is getting them. Is it people who otherwise wouldn’t get clots? Or is it people who have been sedentary and are at a high risk for clots already.

It will be interesting to see where it leads.

If there’s a spike in suicides, it wouldn’t surprise me. NPR had a program the other day where they talked about suicide. They interviewed the psychiatrist who authored this article in the Journal of World Psychiatry:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wps.20767

They mentioned the two most noticeable markers of suicide is economic downturn and disconnecting from society. We are not short on evidence that shows a relationship between loss of jobs and suicide. People are hurting, and they’re hurting bad. Millions upon millions that want jobs are without them. I feel for those that have lost their primary income, with no hope in sight of recovering those jobs. Mom and pop shops are poised to drop like flies, and entire industries may never fully recover (e.g cruising)

A 2 trillion, 3 trillion, 5 trillion or 10 trillion dollar bill won’t solve this problem. We need to protect the most vulnerable as much as we can, but, we also need to open up the economy. I just don’t see any way around it, given that there may not be a vaccine for a year or two or three or…

I dont dispute this. Hopefully we won’t get crushed by a Fall resurgence that makes the initial COVID scare look like a Maypole dance

If there’s a fall resurgence, and people are locked up in their homes during the long dark winter months, this situation will be far worse.

My mother is in an assisted living center and has not left her room since this whole thing started. At the moment, she can at least go out on her balcony, get some fresh air, see the trees blowing in the wind and watch and listen to the bird. If it had been dark and cold the last 8 weeks, she would be pretty miserable :frowning:

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Covid19 Update, May 23. Waiting for the turn.

Actual data, the state of things in a series of annotated charts:

Coming to the end of the week with slight declines in new infection cases. This may be a result of better testing, revealing what has been in the background all along. Or, as we move away from self isolation, it could be a rise in cases. Where I live in Central Oregon, an uptick in cases has been predominately among the 20-29 age group. These folks are now seen in the open pubs, packed cheek to jowl.

Now taking actual known data and forward casting it in models:

The data provider 1Point3Acres revised data back to March 25, but notably increased the number of infected cases by thousands for the last few days. That had the net effect of lowering mortality rates very, very slightly.

Here are the model runs:

As seen in the earlier charts, the saw-tooth pattern is from a drop in weekend reporting. Note also how this week in new cases is not significantly different from last week in magnitude. Mortality is down, but by an insignificant amount.

Looking at the relationship between known new daily cases and daily recorded deaths (now 96,483), see this superior correlation.

With experience and as cases rose, the slope of the modeled function declined. That decline represents a lowering of the mortality rate, here lagged by six (6) days from date of infection, that early in mid-March was over 9% and as high as 11% until the end of March. For May 22nd, the flawed lagged rate is 6.43%, and the 14-day average of the same is 6.48%. The six day lag yields the highest correlation, but it is determined using a denominator (actual infections) that is truly unknown. Some experts believe the true infection rate is 10 times, even 20 times higher than known. Given the number of new infections over the last week, we should expect daily deaths in coming days to be 1,250±300.

To view it another way, see this scenario chart:

This mortality calculation of 5.89%, -0.01% day over day, uses the straight across rate. That is, cumulative deaths to today, divided by cumulative infections.

A plot across the red dashed line, but employing the six-day lagged mortality rate, is seen here:

The two ways to consider mortality are useful, in my opinion. Also note that Italy and Germany have mortality rates (straight across) that are still rising, despite a significant drop in new cases.

That can be seen here in a comparison chart from 1Point3Acres for a suite of countries, including the US:

This turn is what I was referring to in my opening line. Notice how suddenly it happens. While the US has seen a slowing in daily new cases, we have yet to break the back on the spread of Covid19. We will in the years to come have significant opportunities to understand how to react if another pandemic comes upon us.

Finally, the cumulative and mortality mortality chart to June 28:

Have a fun Memorial Day weekend. But stay safe, and be safe.

Part of the explanation for the lack of a turn in US Covid19 cases is discussed here: WAPO originally, May 22 WAPO: Study Estimates 24 States Still Have Uncontrolled Coronavirus Spread.

Yeah, even in the state of Washington, that phenomenon exists. Looking at the state county by county, while many counties have seen a pretty steep drop in new cases, some have seen there curves rise, most notably Yakima county, which has a population of 250K, a tiny fraction of the state population, but is currently contributing a third to a half of the state’s daily cases. So the state would seem a lot more under control without a few outliers.

I’m confused by the term “We uncontrolled.” What does that mean? I couldn’t tell from the article.

Maybe it’s the ale I had at 3:00 while feeding my pond fish on the patio, or the bourbon & 7 at 4:30 while listening to Lee Morgan, or the two tall glasses of red wine I’ve had since 5:30 while I played Rummikub with my wife before dinner. I’ve reread the article twice in this “advanced” state and I don’t see “We whatever” anywhere. So I don’t know. But the gist of the article is that whatever control there was, its not producing results in about half of these here ‘united states’. I got that much out of the piece.

Long live the PLF. Patriots, Liberty and Freedom.

I believe Yakima numbers due to meat processing plant(s).

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41 of Utah’s 93 coronavirus deaths have been in long-term care facilities. I saw someone argue that when a person with advanced Alzheimer’s dies of COVID-19 we should consider that death in a different, less tragic category than others. I think that’s repulsive. Most coronavirus deaths are awful, and memory issues don’t make them any less so. Add to that the family’s pain in being unable to be present when their loved one dies.

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I really don’t know how you draw a line on the value of a human life. Plus if we are going purely social utility, the infection rate and hospitalization rate for those 24-65 is the bulk of who is getting this. And although they may survive there are a lot of human and economic costs that surround that. The words of a few docs and medical professionals I know keep coming back to me - and I realize they aren’t the ultimate experts, but worth listening to is that this is unlike any disease they’ve seen and it is not something we want to mess with.

Mortality is not the only metric for the seriousness of the disease.

Utah has some pretty fascinating numbers to look at:

https://coronavirus-dashboard.utah.gov/#hospitalizations-mortality

676 hospitalized - of those hospitalized 71% are under 65 years old. 13% of those hospitalized have been put on ventilators.

8.6% of the confirmed cases require hospitalization of some sort. 2.7% of the confirmed cases require a stay in the ICU (note that is of all the confirmed cases - so hospitalized or not).

One final thought - they are seeing a rise in hospitalizations from the Orange change, and right about now we should see another spike because of Yellow. Further complicating that is Memorial Day weekend with people traveling, visiting tourist spots and cemeteries, eating out and working on home projects. The next two weeks should be very revealing.

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https://slco.org/health/COVID-19/data/

For those interested in Salt Lake County’s numbers. The County has broke their data out by municipality so you can see what the spread looks like in each of those. Given the weekend step down in activities and personnel working, we may see a dip in the numbers over the next few days. That noted, it is likely see a surge on Friday-Saturday if what I am seeing going on out there is the norm.

Stay safe folks.