COVID-19 Discussion (No Politics)

Interesting article.

Because the death rates from the two with the data thus far are radically different. I tend to agree the COVID-19 rate is probably overstated because of lack of data on who may have had mild or no symptoms, but right now it’s a 3.4% death rate for COVID. That’s 34 times the flu. That cannot be ignored.

FWIW, my stepson is an ER doc at the VA and he said some predictions could have half the country getting COVID in some form before they can reign it in.

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That’s what the LA Times article says. We are so worried because don’t know. This could be horrible or just another flu epidemic.

“I think a big part of it is fear of the unknown,” said Dr. Otto Yang, an infectious disease expert at UCLA. “The enemy you don’t know is much scarier than the enemy you know.”

More data. One’s head starts to spin.

How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let’s Run the Numbers

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-05/how-bad-is-the-coronavirus-let-s-compare-with-sars-ebola-flu

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I’ll admit I’d do this if I could. But I can’t — at least not responsibly.

Coronavirus Is Triggering Fear of Going to Work

https://spectrum.ieee.org/view-from-the-valley/at-work/tech-careers/coronavirus-is-triggering-fear-of-going-to-work

I am concerned about the coronavirus and currently work from home. Does this mean I should start going to the workplace?

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This is the kind of question we expect from techie types. Fortunately, we have all learned to humor you guys. It’s kind of a compassion thing.

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I saw this on Facebook, as it was posted by a friend of mine who is an emergency department physician. I am not taking a position on this, but I do find this point of view persuasive. It was posted by a physician named Abdu Sharkawy:

I’m a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I’ve been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria…there is little I haven’t been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don’t have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know…" and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games…that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
imagine?

I’m scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I’m scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and “fight for yourself above all else” attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let’s meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

#washurhands #geturflushot #respect #patiencenotpanic

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This is pretty good advice I think. I know I’ve joked a bit about this here but it seems just being practical is a good idea. I’m not worried about healthy people under 50. I am worried about the elderly and those with complicating health factors. Today I visited an elderly person in my neighborhood who is on oxygen. She is rightfully worried. She has some people who help her out from health professionals to cleaners to caregivers who come in her home and she is worried about it. She is home bound so asked if I would pick her up some hand sanitizer for her visitors and so I just went to the store. It is all gone. I tried three other places and then checked Amazon, it is all out of stock. I gave her some hand sanitizer that I always have in my car, I figure I can fight this better than she can.

So presumably healthy people have stockpiles of this stuff that will last them a lifetime (I use it pretty frequently and a single standard bottle lasts me about a year and a half). Meanwhile someone who could legitimately benefit from it can’t get any. The empty shelves had signs saying that it was limited to 5 bottles per person. It should have been one bottle.

That’s messed up.

Chill out, was your hands, if you are feeling Ill stay home and if you are elderly or have related health issues avoid contact. Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth. Don’t stockpile stuff you don’t need and won’t ever use.

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I’m a little tired of the articles that say we shouldn’t make a big deal out of this virus because only the elderly and asthmatic are at risk. I am close to at least 100 people who fit that description.

I’m also worn out on people criticizing us for our mass panic and hysteria. I still haven’t seen any of that. I’ve seen some photos of empty shelves at grocery stores. I haven’t heard about any rioting or bomb shelters or whatever would be an actual example of panic.

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Well there are 18,000 deaths from 280,000 cases of the flu, and about 3,000 deaths from 100,000 cases of COVID 19 according to WHO, so I may be missing something. But not sure I see the higher fatality rate.

The CDC calculates that about 8% of the US population gets the flu each year, so about 26 million. So far this flu season about 14,000 have died, according to CDC estimates.

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It appears you are only looking at flu hospitalization for your 280k number and not the total number of illnesses. That’s why you don’t see it.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

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Guys, I’m not trying to push a narrative, but I am a compulsive reader (just ask my wife) and when I see something about COVID-19 that’s interesting and possibly helpful, I’ll post it. Here’s another article. It looks non-partisan to me.

Don’t bet the farm on your stepson’s claims. The model scenarios I’m seeing at the Federal Reserve aren’t a fraction of a % of that.

Doctor v Federal Reserve. Hmm, what to pick? But while you’re there, why if the economy is at an all time high did you have to lower the interest rate half a basis point? Seems counter intuitive to say the least.

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The AHA is expecting a surge of patients that will far outstrip the capacity to handle them.

He says government planning assumptions based on past flu pandemics suggest a surge in demand for intensive care that could range somewhere between 200,000 thousand and 2.9 million patients.

Reports of Lombardy Italy area hospitals already stretched to capacity.

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EU equivalent of the CDC. Just another source of information and data.

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Here’s how it spreads.

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I don’t know about the rest of you, but I have found that it’s difficult to avoid touching my face. (Hey, sometimes my nose itches.) So I’ve invented a solution:

I’m looking for investors now. A veterinarian friend of mine is creating some prototypes for me, and animal testing has already begun.

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