Basketball End of Season Prediction

Utah is coming back down to Earth

+/- wins is the difference from last week

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Utah now shows losing the following games where they previously were winning
San Diego St +4
@Arizona State +6
Washington +1
@Oregon State +3
Colorado +3

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Utah is really coming back down to Earth now.
4 more future game flipped Utah to a loss now (BYU +2, Oregon St +2, @UCLA +1.5 and Stanford +4)

Utah now projected 9th in the conference with 5-13 conference record and 12-18 overall

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Utah picked up 3 wins from last week where they weren’t favored, 1 actual win (BYU, Oregon St and @UCLA). Still looking at 15-15 overall and 7-11 in conference but 6 of those games are under a 4 point spread.

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I will consider a .500 season to be a success for this young team with high potential future success, but only with the caveat that we don’t lose most of the talent to transfers after the season. Anything higher than .500 would be a very pleasant surprise considering the fact that the PAC is loaded.

Be prepared to be happily surprised. As the youngest team around they have the steepest learning curve and will improve more rapidly than almost anyone else. Thrill is amazing with his accuracy, but I cannot imagine he is able to model the speed of improvement for a team which is maturing so rapidly.

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It is one of the most difficult factors to account for but most of the computer models do have recent probability factor as well as season long. They will factor improved recent success as well as downward trends involving injuries, etc…

They aren’t perfect but fairly accurate.

Thrill, what model do you use?

I take several online computer polls, mesh them together and I get a magic number. I’ve spent years looking at who is closest and who is way off. Then tweak it a little by small factors I’ve grown to understand.

Technically, the computers have been used for decades in Vegas. They use the computers to get them in to a flat scenario projection, then the experts in Vegas will adjust using countless numbers of matrices and scenarios that I don’t understand at all. I actually factor Vegas into a lot of what I do to try to get it even closer. When there is a huge discrepancy in what the computers say and what Vegas says I dig a bit deeper to see why. Sometimes it’s Vegas trying to get some winners, sometimes they know something inside (like injured players or internal turmoil), they’re very good at what they do.

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Thanks. It sounds like an interesting thing to get into.

It’s a hobby. I’ve been doing this since I was a kid, never had a place to share this information with until the internet blew up. Now, here I am.

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Top 17 (Pac12 and state of Utah teams)
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Utah is undefeated as the underdog. They are the only team who hasn’t lost when they are the underdog. Nevada and BYU.

The Pac12 is 9-21 as underdogs.

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Utah is currently 4-6 against the spread.
The Pac12 is 49-73 against the spread

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The Pac12 is 84-8 as the favorite.
Utah is 6-2 (lost Coastal Carolina and Tulane as the favorite)

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Games this week

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    • FYI Weber State plays Bethesda but I don’t know who they are so I put MVSU in their place.
    • Neutral site

It is Utah +8 vs UK and Utah +12 vs SDSU?

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Minnesota beat #1 Ohio St tonight

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