* Note: Current rankings are based on activity in the last calendar
4 way tie for second....isn't looking good for Utah
by The Thrill 2019-02-17 10:28:05
That game last night had huge implications on the projected final standings
If all the cards fall as planned there will be a 4 way tie at 11-7 (ASU, Utah, Colorado and Oregon)
ASU would have the advantage with a win over Oregon and a split with Utah and Colorado but a win over Washington. Unless Utah or Colorado can beat Washington next week. Oregon plays Washington on the last game of the season.
I won't get into all the scenarios, right now there are too many.
But if Utah loses to Washington and Colorado they could easily slip to 5th or as far as 10th for the Pac12 tournament. Crazy.
Rough week for Utah going 0-2 with another 0-5 looming. 7-11 and tied for 8th looks to be in the future
by The Thrill 2019-02-03 11:14:35
It's possible Utah could still finish 12-6 in conference but big things would have to change. So is 5-13. USC and Colorado have the largest variance. USC could finish as high as 15-3 or 7-11. Colorado could finish 11-7 or 3-15. Still a lot of games remaining
Here's my computers projections for the last 9 games.
Anything under 6 points I consider a swing game. At UCLA and Washington appear to be sure losses but anything is possible this season.
For Utah to turn this around they need a number of things.
1. Ball control. I must've heard K say 15 times "two handed passes". Sed is averaging 2.7 turnovers and Allen and Goch both at 1.8. That's 6 possessions a game just given away. In wins Utah is -3 on turnovers in losses they are +1.
2. Rebounding. Utah must keep rebounding. In wins Utah is +6 on rebounds, in losses they are -1.
3. Free throw shooting. In wins Utah is is 68.6% from the line, in losses Utah is 62.4% and their opponents shoot 77.3%
4. Move the ball without careless passes. In Utah wins Utah has 16.3 assists, in losses they have 11.7 assists.
Here are the magic numbers for a Utah win. FG% = 47% - Utah is 9-1 when shooting 47% or better Assists = 15 - Utah is 8-1 when getting 15 or more assists Points = 73 - Utah is 9-2 when scoring 73 or more points Turnovers = 12 - Utah is 6-2 when they commit 12 or less turnovers Rebounds = 36 - Utah is 9-1 when they get 36 or more rebounds
Utah allows FG% = 46.5% - Utah is 10-1 when allowing 46.5% or worse shooting Points = 73 - Utah is 10-1 when allowing 73 points or less Rebounds = 29 - Utah is 4-2 when they allow 29 rebounds or less Free Throw attempts = 17 - Utah is 7-3 when they allow 17 or less free throw attempts
My work building was tagged over the weekend. We get tagged from time to time and the city always cracks down on us to paint over it. That in itself seems like a scam but that's not what brought me here.
About an hour ago a guy comes in and says "man, I see that you guys got tagged. Those kids man, I tell ya. Well, let me tell you what we do. We offer beautiful murals to provide 100% coverage to exposed walls. Something that is connected to your business. Then when these punk kids come tag you it's a waste of their time since their work gets lost in the mural. $500 for your wall. What do you say?"
We sent him packing. A girl in our office passes him in leaving and after he leaves she says, "that's the guy I saw this morning looking at our wall with the tagging. He looked suspicious and I thought he maybe did it."
So, do you believe that this guy is going around tagging random buildings and then selling his murals to cover them up? Because we do.
Utes look to finish somewhere from 6-12 and 12-6 in league play
by The Thrill 2019-01-13 10:29:48
Now an underdog vs Colorado next Sunday. The loss of Bol Bol doesn't hit the computers but that game is far from -4 Oregon. Utah might even be favored now, they could easily go 5-1 through Oregon trip from yesterday. February still looks rough with 5 straight losses eminent.
11 of 14 remaining games are swing games and could go either way.
As PVD said after his monster dunk yesterday "we can beat any team and we can lose to any team." So profound.
Utes are off for 7 days. Don't really need the rest but it can't hurt.
Utah's win over ASU and OT loss to AZ helped them with the computers. They picked up 4 future wins. Now have Utah as the favorite @Colorado, @OregonState, @Wazzu and vs USC. Projected 7-11 in Pac12 now.
by The Thrill 2019-01-06 10:29:23
Oregon lost Bol Bol for the season so 13-5 is generous, especially after they lost to rival Oregon State in Eugene last night. Utah only plays Oregon once and it's at home on 1/31. Computers have Utah +4 for that game but that could change a lot in the next 3 weeks.
Utah now has 10 swing games (under 6 points) and potential for 15-3 in the Pac12. Yes I know they can still go 17-1 but realistically at UCLA and at Washington should be losses....but so was Arizona State
the way Barefield and Tillman have been shooting can't and won't last forever. Need some big man help, it's really uncomfortable watching JJ do athletic stuff. Is there a timeline for Thioune? Will he play this year? I'm guessing Gaskin is redshirting? I thought with Hendrix leaving that Gaskin might play.
Anyways, this week vs Washington I see Utah +3 and favored by 8 vs Washington St. February looks rough with 5 straight losses and 4/7 games on the road. We'll see.
Meeting is set with Mark Harlan! Excited to talk about incorporating these kids fighting cancer as part of the game day tradition at Utah 🙌🏼. Hayes is opening a lot of doors! Thank you for supporting us!
On a positive note, it was nice of us to loan TJ Green to Northwestern after Thorson got hurt. I can see why we don't play him at QB
by The Thrill 2019-01-01 10:31:30
1 player in the box score on offense is a senior. (Field)
3 players in the box score on defense are seniors (Ballard, Blair and Barton)
3 special teams players are seniors (Vickers, Gay and Wishnowsky)
Throw in the OL guys (Agasiva, Amaana, Jackson Barton, Falemaka, Katoa) and Chase Hansen and 13 players will be missed.
But without saying, just wait until next year....just wait until next year.
Linebacker might actually improve with Bowen and Bernards.
Huntley and Shelley will have a battle in April.
Utah might have the best WR core they've ever had next season (Mariner, Simpkins, Covey, Nacua, Thompson, Boyd, Dixon, Enis)...throw in one of Puka Nacua, Darren Jones or Donte Banton or all 3 and they are finally up to speed with other Pac12 teams. Not even mentioning the tight ends, Jackson, Fotheringham and Kuithe.
If Moss comes back the running back crew is stacked. They also get back Devonta'e Henry-Cole along with Shyne, Brumfield and Green (who isn't a quarterback) plus throw in Micah Bernard.
Defense should be another Utah defense. Not one senior on the defensive line. Pirtle, Tafua, Fotu, Penisini, Tonga, Cravens, Anae, Repp, Tupai...solid.
In the defensive backfield it's next man up. Aaron Lowe is legit, so is Pleasant Johnson. A lot of speed, Guidry, Johnson, Lewis, Burgess, Afia, Blackmon. Who will be the next Marquise Blair? By that I don't mean lead the team in targeting, but big hit capability? Vonte Davis?
Offensive Line is leaving the biggest holes, 5 seniors. To fill in are Umana, Ford, Capra, Dixon, Paulo. Will Braeden Daniels step it up? The two highest rated signees so far are both guards. Laumea and Talavou. Will they step in an play right away? Will Felix-Fualalo be in the mix? What about guys like Jake Grant, and Simi Moala? Their success will key in everybody else's success, especially the run game. Shelley had a great first half last night because that OL was awesome.
The biggest holes on the team are special teams. Gay and Wishnowsky. I don't know a lot about Ben Lennon but he's from Australia, that's enough for me. We forget that Chayden Johnston was a top 5 kicker recruit out of HS and Bingham. It's time for those guys to shine. Notably, the Notre Dame SR kicker Justin Yoon was the #1 kicker that year 2015. He is currently the all-time scoring leader at Notre Dame, for all scoring breaking RB Allen Pinkett 33 year record for the Irish.
Some notable missionaries. Chad Hekking, QB, punter, tight end. All everything. Is he the next Chase Hansen? Will he play?
Quinn Fabrizio, a year after mission legs. Will he contribute?
Keaton Bills, defensive tackle. Next Leki Fotu?
Semisi Lauaki, defensive end. Turned down USC for Utah. Could be the next Bradlee Anae.
Johnny Maea, offensive guard. Depth is very needed at OL
Pac12 Basketball end of season predictions (updated)
by The Thrill 2018-12-23 10:04:03
Washington made a big move this week. Picked up future wins over Oregon, Stanford and Oregon State. Utah still looks like a 1 win team but improved their odds in 14 of 19 remaining games. The other 5 stayed the same spread.
Upsets from last week
Santa Clara over USC
Kent State over Oregon State
Baylor over Oregon
Indiana State over Colorado ASU over Kansas
The 3 UCLA losses?
At Oregon 1/10 +4
At Washington 2/2 +3
At Colorado 3/7 +2
Just like football, here are my end of season predictions for basketball.
Things aren't looking great for Utah.
Best case scenario for Utah at this time is 13-17 overall.
The one game I have them favored in the Pac12 is at home vs Washington State
Although, I consider any games under 6 points to be swing games.
See the predicted lines below.
Keep Haws under 10 shot attempts - NO 5/10
Force 13 turnovers or more - NO 10
Get 3 turnovers from Haws - NO 2
Keep Childs and Nixon off the offensive glass. BYU less than 7 off rebounds - NO 10 OFFENSIVE BOARDS, CHILDS WITH 4
Keep BYU below 40 at half, Childs at 10 by half. YES/NO 32 BYU, Childs 15
Get Childs into foul trouble, 3 by halftime. NO, 2 for the game
Be over 40 points at halftime - NO 28
Own the glass. 20 rebounds by the end of the game - NO/YES, they did get 28 rebounds but BYU had 40
Barefield needs to draw fouls. Team must be over 22 FT attempts - NO 17 attempts
8 turnovers or less - NO 11
13 made shots by halftime, 26 made shots by the end of the game - NO 10 at half 19 by game
10 or more made three point shots - YES EXACTLY 10
Topalovic and Johnson must finish the game both with 2 blocks. NO BOTH HAD 1
If they would only do what I say they'd be much better.
North Carolina State wide receiver Kelvin Harmon and linebacker Germaine Pratt
ASU wide receiver N’Keal Harry
South Carolina wide receiver Deebo Samuel
Houston defensive lineman Ed Oliver
Michigan defensive lineman Rashan Gary
LSU cornerback Greedy Williams
Iowa tight end Noah Fant
West Virginia QB Will Grier
Oklahoma State running back Justice Hill
How would you feel if Chase Hansen or Marquise Blair skipped the Holiday Bowl?
BYU had lost 3 in a row before beating Utah St.
6-1 at home - 0-3 on the road
Yoeli Childs and TJ Haws still lead this team. I didn't see Eric Mika on their roster, he must be injured.
They just got Nick Emery back so McKay Cannon and Zac Seljaas should be a non-factor.
I think their best player is freshman Connor Harding. Yoeli Childs is their go-to guy and a beast on the glass but from what I've seen Harding is a legit player and will be a pain for the next 4 years.
Although being older than the Nuggets and the Trailblazers, this is a young BYU team. Only 2 seniors account for 1/10 minutes and 4 points.
They love to shoot the three. Childs can make it 32%, Haws is a gunner 38%, Seljaas might be their best from three 37% but Emery is a headcase. We all know of his personal issues and mental instability, it follows him onto the floor. He's only played 1 game so he might have matured now that he's 27 years old.
They put up about 24 attempts from three but only make 7 30% Utah on the other hand also puts up 24 attempts but makes almost 9 at 37%. Jahshire Hardnett is a quick guard from Mississippi who somehow fits in with this team. He's not an average BYU player at all.
BYU likes to run and score but they're lazy on defense. Utah has to beat them on the boards and control the paint. Childs is big and likes to bang, he's a good player but he's too slow for the next level and his defense is awful.
Utah is much bigger and more athletic, but this BYU team has been playing together for 10 years....Utes have barely played 10 weeks together
Tale of the tape
Childs 6'8" 225 - Johnson 7'0" 235
Haws 6'4" 170 - Gach 6'7" 195
Hardnett 6'0" 185 - Barefield 6'2" 190
Seljaas 6'7" 215 - Allen 6'6" 210
Nixon 6'7" 215 - Tillman 6'7" 225
A heavy dose of Topalovic and Johnson on Childs might wear him down. They're big enough they shouldn't require a double team but Childs is tricky and passes well so backdoor cuts and key cuts need to be cut off.
Haws turns the ball over and Gach has 3 inches on him. I think Gach is athletic enough to keep up with Haws but he's still raw and Haws has 10 years on him. He's a sneaky guard. If Haws gets less than 10 shots off then that's a win.
Barefield needs to have a good game. He has size and experience over Hardnett. I hope to see our bigs pull Childs out of the key with high ball screens and let Barefield break down the offense with drives to layups or corner threes.
Allen needs to show up. Seljaas and Harding are a handful and Timmy will be chasing them all game. There is a ton of talent there with Allen and he needs to figure it out quick. If he can control the ball and hit open guys Utah will be successful. Seljaas is a great shooter and the Utes need to watch him rotating around the wings.
Tillman is bigger and stronger than Nixon but Nixon is a hustler. He has great stamina and he just seems to be in on every play. Think Alex Jensen. Tillman can't be lazy, Nixon will beat him to the play. I think Tillman is the better player
PVD and Emery are very similar but Emery is a better shooter when it comes to creating his own shot. If these two are guarding each other look for just two solid players who do what they need to do. Emery isn't a bad guy, just a spoiled kid from the Lone Peak 3 fame. Same goes for Haws. I want to hate both of them but they're really good and frustrating players, the kind of guys you want on your team and hate facing. Think Andre Miller but not as good.
Harding and Battin are both very similar freshmen. Both have huge upsides and show a lot of promise. They will get to know each other well for the next 4 years and might go down as a classic battle by 2021. Battin is bigger and a better shooter but Harding has more hustle.
The key will be Utah's size. Topalovic could be a huge factor in this game. It will be interesting if BYU resorts to hack-a-JJ, Jayce is only 4/16 from the line and his form is awful. With that said I heard K say that JJ is practicing his FTs all the time and went 10/10 in practice. It's a big deal to not have your 7 footer on the floor at the end of games. Childs isn't a great FT shooter but he isn't bad. If Childs gets into foul trouble early then Utah could get ahead and not look back.
Utah's bench is better but BYU runs 3 guys nearly 30 minutes a game or more. Haws, Hardnett and Childs make up 1/2 their minutes.
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