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Pac12 Basketball end of season predictions
by The Thrill 2018-12-16 11:38:37
Just like football, here are my end of season predictions for basketball.
Things aren't looking great for Utah.
Best case scenario for Utah at this time is 13-17 overall.
The one game I have them favored in the Pac12 is at home vs Washington State
Although, I consider any games under 6 points to be swing games.
See the predicted lines below.
Keep Haws under 10 shot attempts - NO 5/10
Force 13 turnovers or more - NO 10
Get 3 turnovers from Haws - NO 2
Keep Childs and Nixon off the offensive glass. BYU less than 7 off rebounds - NO 10 OFFENSIVE BOARDS, CHILDS WITH 4
Keep BYU below 40 at half, Childs at 10 by half. YES/NO 32 BYU, Childs 15
Get Childs into foul trouble, 3 by halftime. NO, 2 for the game
Be over 40 points at halftime - NO 28
Own the glass. 20 rebounds by the end of the game - NO/YES, they did get 28 rebounds but BYU had 40
Barefield needs to draw fouls. Team must be over 22 FT attempts - NO 17 attempts
8 turnovers or less - NO 11
13 made shots by halftime, 26 made shots by the end of the game - NO 10 at half 19 by game
10 or more made three point shots - YES EXACTLY 10
Topalovic and Johnson must finish the game both with 2 blocks. NO BOTH HAD 1
If they would only do what I say they'd be much better.
North Carolina State wide receiver Kelvin Harmon and linebacker Germaine Pratt
ASU wide receiver N’Keal Harry
South Carolina wide receiver Deebo Samuel
Houston defensive lineman Ed Oliver
Michigan defensive lineman Rashan Gary
LSU cornerback Greedy Williams
Iowa tight end Noah Fant
West Virginia QB Will Grier
Oklahoma State running back Justice Hill
How would you feel if Chase Hansen or Marquise Blair skipped the Holiday Bowl?
BYU had lost 3 in a row before beating Utah St.
6-1 at home - 0-3 on the road
Yoeli Childs and TJ Haws still lead this team. I didn't see Eric Mika on their roster, he must be injured.
They just got Nick Emery back so McKay Cannon and Zac Seljaas should be a non-factor.
I think their best player is freshman Connor Harding. Yoeli Childs is their go-to guy and a beast on the glass but from what I've seen Harding is a legit player and will be a pain for the next 4 years.
Although being older than the Nuggets and the Trailblazers, this is a young BYU team. Only 2 seniors account for 1/10 minutes and 4 points.
They love to shoot the three. Childs can make it 32%, Haws is a gunner 38%, Seljaas might be their best from three 37% but Emery is a headcase. We all know of his personal issues and mental instability, it follows him onto the floor. He's only played 1 game so he might have matured now that he's 27 years old.
They put up about 24 attempts from three but only make 7 30% Utah on the other hand also puts up 24 attempts but makes almost 9 at 37%. Jahshire Hardnett is a quick guard from Mississippi who somehow fits in with this team. He's not an average BYU player at all.
BYU likes to run and score but they're lazy on defense. Utah has to beat them on the boards and control the paint. Childs is big and likes to bang, he's a good player but he's too slow for the next level and his defense is awful.
Utah is much bigger and more athletic, but this BYU team has been playing together for 10 years....Utes have barely played 10 weeks together
Tale of the tape
Childs 6'8" 225 - Johnson 7'0" 235
Haws 6'4" 170 - Gach 6'7" 195
Hardnett 6'0" 185 - Barefield 6'2" 190
Seljaas 6'7" 215 - Allen 6'6" 210
Nixon 6'7" 215 - Tillman 6'7" 225
A heavy dose of Topalovic and Johnson on Childs might wear him down. They're big enough they shouldn't require a double team but Childs is tricky and passes well so backdoor cuts and key cuts need to be cut off.
Haws turns the ball over and Gach has 3 inches on him. I think Gach is athletic enough to keep up with Haws but he's still raw and Haws has 10 years on him. He's a sneaky guard. If Haws gets less than 10 shots off then that's a win.
Barefield needs to have a good game. He has size and experience over Hardnett. I hope to see our bigs pull Childs out of the key with high ball screens and let Barefield break down the offense with drives to layups or corner threes.
Allen needs to show up. Seljaas and Harding are a handful and Timmy will be chasing them all game. There is a ton of talent there with Allen and he needs to figure it out quick. If he can control the ball and hit open guys Utah will be successful. Seljaas is a great shooter and the Utes need to watch him rotating around the wings.
Tillman is bigger and stronger than Nixon but Nixon is a hustler. He has great stamina and he just seems to be in on every play. Think Alex Jensen. Tillman can't be lazy, Nixon will beat him to the play. I think Tillman is the better player
PVD and Emery are very similar but Emery is a better shooter when it comes to creating his own shot. If these two are guarding each other look for just two solid players who do what they need to do. Emery isn't a bad guy, just a spoiled kid from the Lone Peak 3 fame. Same goes for Haws. I want to hate both of them but they're really good and frustrating players, the kind of guys you want on your team and hate facing. Think Andre Miller but not as good.
Harding and Battin are both very similar freshmen. Both have huge upsides and show a lot of promise. They will get to know each other well for the next 4 years and might go down as a classic battle by 2021. Battin is bigger and a better shooter but Harding has more hustle.
The key will be Utah's size. Topalovic could be a huge factor in this game. It will be interesting if BYU resorts to hack-a-JJ, Jayce is only 4/16 from the line and his form is awful. With that said I heard K say that JJ is practicing his FTs all the time and went 10/10 in practice. It's a big deal to not have your 7 footer on the floor at the end of games. Childs isn't a great FT shooter but he isn't bad. If Childs gets into foul trouble early then Utah could get ahead and not look back.
Utah's bench is better but BYU runs 3 guys nearly 30 minutes a game or more. Haws, Hardnett and Childs make up 1/2 their minutes.
Utah had a season low 52 plays and 24 rushing attempts. Average 69 plays and 41 rushes per game.
The 9 positive run plays at 37.5% was a season low for Utah
23 positive plays was a season low
62.5% non-positive rushing plays was a season low
Utah only had 1 big run play, 16 yard run by Covey early in the game, in fact, that was the only big run play of the game. 1.6% combined for all plays for a big play.
Washington had 0 big runs (15+ yards) the 6th time Utah has held a team. Washington had 2 big runs in the first game. Washington only had 11 possessions which was a season low for Utah opponent.
The 124 plays was a season low along with the 21 possessions, season average is 25 possessions. 53 plays were positive (4+ yards) season low.
PROS: Has excellent length for the position; offers a physical profile that projects well to playing against NFL tight ends, especially with added weight. Can offer hard-hitting reps across the middle of the field or when filling down against the run — has been ejected from multiple games for targeting, given tendency to look for the big hit. Length can assist him as a tackler: increases tackle radius in space.
CONS: Is generally a very poor tackler. Dives for ankles at every opportunity. Will either come in too contact far too hot and be easily eluded or sit on his heels and let contact come to him. A grab-and-drag tackler in space.
24 - 21 Washington U (#16) over Utah (#17)
26 - 23 Stanford over California
39 - 24 Alabama (#1) over Georgia (#4)
40 - 13 Clemson (#2) over Pittsburgh (#24)
44 - 36 Oklahoma (#5) over Texas (#14)
28 - 24 Boise State (#25) over Fresno State
38 - 23 Ohio State (#10) over Northwestern (#19)
34 - 31 Central Florida (#9) over Memphis
23 - 21 Middle Tennessee over UAB
38 - 21 Appalachian State over Louisiana-Lafayette
26 - 23 Buffalo over Northern Illinois
29 - 24 Marshall over Virginia Tech
43 - 13 South Carolina over Akron
42 - 17 NC State over East Carolina
Final predicted standings....because it isn't a prediction any more.
by The Thrill 2018-11-25 11:27:26
(9-3) WASHINGTON (7-2)
(10-2) WASHINGTON STATE (7-2)
(8-4) STANFORD (6-3)
(8-4) OREGON (5-4)
(7-5) CALIFORNIA (4-5)
(2-10) OREGON STATE (1-8)
(9-3) UTAH (6-3)
(7-5) ARIZONA STATE (5-4)
(5-7) USC (4-5)
(5-7) ARIZONA (4-5)
(3-9) UCLA (3-6)
(5-7) COLORADO (2-7)
IN STATE SCHOOLS
(10-2) UTAH STATE
Below is how teams changed from my week 1 predictions. (predicted record)
+6 WASHINGTON STATE (surprise of the year) 5-7
+3 ARIZONA STATE 4-8
+2 BYU 4-8
+2 Utah State 8-4
+1 CALIFORNIA 6-6
+1 UCLA 2-10
0 OREGON STATE 2-10 0 UTAH 9-3
-1 OREGON 9-3
-1 COLORADO 6-6
-2 ARIZONA 7-5
-3 STANFORD 11-1
-3 WASHINGTON 11-1
-5 USC (slump of the year) 10-2
43 - 27 Oregon over Oregon State
28 - 21 Washington State (#8) over Washington (#16)
31 - 27 Stanford over UCLA
33 - 32 Arizona State over Arizona
27 - 17 California over Colorado
40 - 14 Notre Dame (#3) over Southern California
30 - 14 Utah (#17) over BYU
34 - 33 Boise State (#23) over Utah State (#21)
40 - 13 Alabama (#1) over Auburn
42 - 17 Clemson (#2) over South Carolina
30 - 26 Michigan (#4) over Ohio State (#10)
39 - 20 Georgia (#5) over Georgia Tech
45 - 38 Oklahoma (#6) over West Virginia (#9)
27 - 21 Texas A&M (#22) over LSU (#7)
46 - 23 Central Florida (#9) over South Florida
36 - 17 Penn State (#12) over Maryland
28 - 24 Florida (#13) over Florida State
37 - 11 Texas (#14) over Kansas
36 - 17 Kentucky (#15) over Louisville
39 - 23 Mississippi State (#18) over Mississippi
42 - 17 Northwestern (#19) over Illinois
29 - 28 Boston College (#20) over Syracuse (#20)
37 - 14 Cincinnati (#24) over East Carolina
27 - 20 Miami-Florida over Pittsburgh (#24)
24 - 17 Iowa State (#25) over Kansas State
37 - 27 Air Force over Colorado State
38 - 37 Memphis over Houston
32 - 21 Iowa over Nebraska
42 - 13 Ohio over Akron
39 - 14 Toledo over Central Michigan
36 - 24 Buffalo over Bowling Green
34 - 17 Eastern Michigan over Kent State
47 - 14 Missouri over Arkansas
31 - 27 Coastal Carolina over South Alabama
30 - 20 Virginia over Virginia Tech
28 - 24 Marshall over Fla. International
33 - 32 Texas Tech over Baylor
34 - 20 Tulane over Navy
35 - 14 Louisiana Tech over Western Kentucky
39 - 21 NC State over North Carolina
34 - 24 Duke over Wake Forest
33 - 32 Purdue over Indiana
40 - 23 Old Dominion over Rice
43 - 30 Liberty over New Mexico State
37 - 21 Georgia Southern over Georgia State
24 - 23 Appalachian State over Troy
27 - 17 Wyoming over New Mexico
38 - 34 Louisiana-Monroe over Louisiana-Lafayette
27 - 24 UAB over Middle Tennessee
32 - 13 Southern Miss over UTEP
32 - 21 Wisconsin over Minnesota
51 - 16 Temple over Connecticut
35 - 23 SMU over Tulsa
34 - 3 Michigan State over Rutgers
25 - 24 Vanderbilt over Tennessee
36 - 17 Arkansas State over Texas State
35 - 19 Florida Atlantic over Charlotte
42 - 7 Fresno State over San Jose State
36 - 14 North Texas over UTSA
29 - 27 Oklahoma State over TCU
41 - 21 Nevada over UNLV
33 - 21 San Diego State over Hawai'i
Utah allowed a season low of positive rushes, 29.4% was all Colorado got. 10 positive rushes out of 34 attempts. Conversely Utah had a season high of negative rushes, 70.6% of all rushes were less than 4 yards. The snow helped. Colorado had 0 big rush plays (15+ yards) which was Utah's 5th time this season of not allowing a big rush play.
Utah on the other hand had a season low of positive rush and positive pass plays. Only 39.1% of every rush attempt was for 4+ yards, Utah season average is 52.1% and overall Utah only had 29 positive plays (average 37.5) for a season low of 42% of every play was positive. Utah season average is 53.4% but obviously the weather impacted it.
Utah had 4 three-and-outs vs Colorado which tied their season high but the 15 possessions was a season high as well. Average Utah game is 12.3 possessions. The worst game of the season was Washington. 1/3 of their possessions were 3 and out.
On the plus side Utah had a big pass play (15+ yards) on 26.1% of their passes. 6/23 pass plays went for 15 yards or more. 18, 61, 15, 47(td), 19 and 19.
Best case scenarios to finish for each team - Pac12 records (updated)
by The Thrill 2018-11-18 13:44:49
Just for fun...
1. Utah 6-3 (1st)
2. Arizona or Arizona St 5-4
3. Arizona or Arizona St 4-5
3/4/5. USC 4-5
4/5. UCLA 4-5 or 3-6
6. Colorado 3-6 or 2-7
1. Washington State 8-1 or Washington 7-2
2. Washington State 7-2 or Washington 6-3
3. Stanford 6-3 (Cal and UCLA wins)
4. California 5-4 (Stanford and Colorado wins)
4. Stanford 5-4 (Cal and UCLA split)
4. Oregon 5-4 or 4-5
4. California 4-5 (Stanford and Colorado split)
4. Stanford 4-5 (Cal and UCLA losses)
5. California 3-6 (Stanford and Colorado losses)
6. Oregon State 2-7 or 1-8
If UCLA beats Stanford and Arizona beats ASU that would put USC in 5th place in the south. If ASU and Stanford win USC takes 3rd.
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