So, let's see how this breaks down.
Posted By: ironman1315
Date: Saturday 8 June 2019, at 09:18 pm
Scenario 1: Changing the Constitution
The process: 2/3s vote in Congress. Followed by a 3/4s approval by the states. Yeah...okay that'll happen (it won't).
Scenario 2: Trump ignores the Constitution and runs for reelection a third time
So, let's see how this plays out. Trump decides to run for a third term.
The Courts: An action preventing Trump from running would be filed. It's a question of standing, at first, but I think it likely that the US government would have standing and potentially other candidates as well plus state governments. Trump's case would revolve around asking the Court to ignore the plain language of the Constitution. Could they do it? Sure, but I can think of five justices that for sure would not (Robers, Ginsburg, Breyer, Kagan, and Sotomayor), two that likely would not (Thomas and Alito), and one more that I think probably would not (Gorsuch [based on his legal philosophy]), and one that I wildly speculate would not (Kavanaugh [but based on his legal philosophy I don't think he would buy such an argument]).
Congress: The Democrats in Congress certainly would not (which locks up the house). So that leaves us with the Senate. Romney would not support such a move (as he is strongly considering not giving Trump an endorsement). And several other swing votes wouldn't. And, after this next election, I think it highly likely that even if the Dems don't take control of the Senate the Republican majority will be by just a few votes. This is supposing that the rest of the base cowers in fear of Trump.
The States: Simply put, states could refuse to comply with Trump attempting to get on the ballot for a third term. They have their rules for elections. Their rules cannot be commandeered by executive fiat. (And since the house would never approve Trump for a third term there will be no legislation passed to force the issue).
Military/Executive: Of course, Trump could just go full dictator and try to use the military to force his way onto the ballot or to remain at the WH. But, I find it highly unlikely that the entirety of the military/national guard would follow his lead. Oh, some might, but there would be fighting and blood in the streets if that happened.
Then, of course, there is the little matter of the people voting him in, two more times in fact. Again, something I find highly unlikely.
So, you tell me who hasn't thought about these issues deeply enough. Your belief that this is even a remote likelihood is total crackpot nonsense.
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