The vid posted was interesting. Thanks to UtahFanSir for sharing. Made me curious about FrontRunner, because yes... pragmatism...
Posted By: Zeous
Date: Monday 3 June 2019, at 10:28 pm
I've never ridden FrontRunner. Anybody here ride it regularly?
http://www.rideuta.com/-/media/Files/Abou t-UTA/Reports/2019/C5016_UTA_Operations_Si mulation_Tech_MemoV2_20190320.ashx?la=en has some data on possible scenarios for the future, including electrification (or not).
21,800 average riders on weekdays in 2018. Fares vary - looks like $5-$10 round trip, maybe. Or a monthly pass is about $200.
So one who rides daily at the $10 fee, it's basically the same as buying a pass (except you also get trax and bus), assuming 20 commuting days per month.
21,800 x 200 = $4,360,000 x 12 = $52,320,000 annual revenue approximately. However, couldn't find data on annual operating costs.
The same report linked above has various options for the future of FrontRunner, ranging in capital investment requirements (today's dollars) from $404 million to do no upgrades or expansion to $3.1 Billion to go electric, infill some stops, and expand service to Brigham City and Santaquin.
And that does not include "Right of Way" costs, which presumably are expensive and difficult to model else they would be included I imagine. Haven't seen why not yet.
One of the key goals of the Future of FrontRunner Study was to understand the potential to increase system ridership. To measure the ridership effects of the different commuter rail service scenarios, LTK team member Fehr & Peers worked with Wasatch Front Regional Council (WFRC) staff to use the WFRC/Mountainland Association of Governments (MAG) regional travel demand model.WFRC staff ran the models with support, input, and review from Fehr & Peers. The model is a four-step travel demand model used for forecasting transportation demand for both transit and highway systems in the region and includes Utah, Salt Lake, Davis, and Weber Counties, representing the primary UTA service area.The intention of the study was to isolate the effects of FrontRunner on the transit system, so for a forecast year of 2050, all other variables were held constant including land use and socio-economics, and the background highway and transit networks.
Doesn't seem likely to me that demand would increase sufficiently to have positive return on investment... unless oil prices skyrocketed... and then you'd still have increased demand for electric cars instead.
More info here http://www.rideuta.com/About-UTA/UTA-Repo rts-and-Documents
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