In more good news along with a 1,500 point drop in the Dow in less than two days...

Posted By: UtahFanSir
Date: Thursday 6 December 2018, at 09:04 am
Recommended by 4 user(s)

From my local paper, published first in the LA Times: UCLA economists predict downshift in 2019.

Excerpt:

“The economy is in the process of downshifting from the 3 percent growth in real GDP this year to 2 percent in 2019 and 1 percent in 2020,” warned senior economist David Shulman, author of the group’s national forecast.

What about President Trump’s repeated predictions the economy will grow at 4 percent to 6 percent?

“It’s not going to happen,” Shulman said. “We think it is going to slow a lot more than what the president’s people are saying. Typically administrations — whether they’re Republican or Democratic — are more optimistic than other forecasters. But the Trump administration has exaggerated more than other administrations.”

Along with a shrinking gross domestic product, job growth is likely to sink from the 190,000 average monthly gain this year to 160,000 a month next year, and a far weaker 40,000 a month in 2020, according to the UCLA outlook.

End of quote.

Winning on a massive scale.


On another topic: The Flattening Yield Curve Just Produced Its First Inversions.

Look at the chart and the timing of the last inverted yield curve...

This before the Fed decides to raise the FFF again this month, potentially making the negative YC worse.

See this for a history of the YC: The Flattening Yield Curve -- Is It Different this Time?

Could be wrong, but the only time a negative YC situation DID NOT lead to a recession was in the 1960s, one time.

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