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Of course not

Posted By: pangloss
Date: Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 01:22 pm

If you look at this chart, it plots the logarithmic cost of one airplane extrapolated to the year 2030. The correlation of the normalized historical airplane data is high - a lot better than the data we used at the rocket ranch to forecast costs and labor hours.

By about 2055 the entire Defence budget will be required for one plane.

By about 2130 the entire GDP will be required. But take heart, it will be a hell of a plane. No doubt better than Capt. Kirk's Enterprise.

I couldn't find an updated chart, but the F-22 and F-35 are on the trend line. The new bomber they're planning ought to be breath-takingly expensive.

<<Ignore pangloss ] [PritnerPrint This Message ] >>

Messages In This Thread

96GradAlum icon NEW: Don't let anyone ever tell you we can't afford universal healthcare or free college ...
96GradAlum - -- Wednesday 16 May 2018, at 10:07 am [ID# 1910261] [reply]
Red Don icon NEW: The largest Air Force in the world, the U.S. Air Force. (short)
Red Don - Top 25 Poster -- Wednesday 16 May 2018, at 12:16 pm [ID# 1910265] [reply]
Vegas Ute icon NEW: The US Marine Corp (by themselves) are a larger military force than the Armies of:
Vegas Ute - -- Wednesday 16 May 2018, at 01:24 pm [ID# 1910274] [reply]
pangloss icon NEW: Of course not
pangloss - -- Wednesday 16 May 2018, at 01:22 pm [ID# 1910273] [reply]
Maji Man icon NEW: By then we'll only need one plane, not even a pilot.
Maji Man - -- Wednesday 16 May 2018, at 02:40 pm [ID# 1910277] [reply]
o NEW: F-22 and F-35 are well below the trend line
AFUte - -- Wednesday 16 May 2018, at 04:48 pm [ID# 1910282] [reply]
Newbomb Turk icon NEW: The company I worked for did the Propellant Replacement Program for the Minuteman missiles. You are correct, FRP is much cheaper per copy than LRP. (nm)
Newbomb Turk - Top 25 Poster -- Wednesday 16 May 2018, at 05:16 pm [ID# 1910290] [reply]
pangloss icon NEW: The chart is from Augustine's Law's. I'm encouraged the forcast marginal unit costs are trending toward the program targets. I'm not sure, but I suspect the plot is average unit production cost (includes Dev). (nm)
pangloss - -- Thursday 17 May 2018, at 01:13 pm [ID# 1910364] [reply]
o NEW: I don't even know where to begin...
AFUte - -- Wednesday 16 May 2018, at 05:19 pm [ID# 1910293] [reply]
Rocker Ute icon NEW: Can you break that down into easy to read and easy to post on social media graphs so Bernie Sanders supporters can understand? Then can you forward it to their moms so they can post it for them? (nm)
Rocker Ute - -- Wednesday 16 May 2018, at 06:41 pm [ID# 1910315] [reply]
96GradAlum icon NEW: I'm going to temper my original response and just say this: while I get the sentiment ... that was a pretty douchie way to say it (nm)
96GradAlum - -- Thursday 17 May 2018, at 06:27 am [ID# 1910334] [reply]
Rocker Ute icon NEW: Are you perceiving this as an attack on you or something? I don't get why it is "douchey", it was a joke.
Rocker Ute - -- Thursday 17 May 2018, at 04:46 pm [ID# 1910378] [reply]
96GradAlum icon NEW: I'm going to try to respond Friday -- At the moment I have work and personal responsibilities that prevent me from doing a detail response worthy of your post. ... and I think it's important that we have this discussion in more detail (nm)
96GradAlum - -- Thursday 17 May 2018, at 06:30 am [ID# 1910335] [reply]
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