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Opening line vs actual results in Utah games

Posted By: ironman1315
Date: Friday, October 23, 2015 at 11:41 am

I keep hearing chatter from various sources about how accurate Vegas is in predicting "winners" (Side note I know Vegas doesn't predict winners and what not, still this is what people say). So, I decided to see just how accurate they are in predicting winners and the spread for Utah games. The results are as follows:

Utah Michigan:
-Line: Utah -4.5.
-Result: 24-17 Utah

Utah Utah State:
-Line: Utah -12
-Result: 24-14 Utah

Utah Fresno State:
-Line: Utah -14
-Result: 45-24 Utah

Utah Oregon:
-Line: Utah +11
-Result: 62-20 Utah

Utah Cal:
-Line: Utah -6
-Result: 30-24 Utah

Utah Arizona State:
-Line: Utah -6.5
-Result: 34-18 Utah

Utah has beaten the spread 4 out of 6 times. I believe that if we had Wilson in for the 2d half during the Utah State game that would have been a win too, but I digress. In any event, when it comes to picking Utah spreads Vegas sucks and Utah is going to win.

Note I also tried searching for FPI predictions for previous weeks but couldn't find much. I admit this was pretty cursory though so I can't say with 100% certainty that ESPN is hiding the ball, but I'm pretty sure they are trying their hardest.

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Messages In This Thread


o NEW: Opening line vs actual results in Utah games
ironman1315 - -- Friday 23 October 2015, at 11:41 am [ID# 1774364] [reply]
(1)
Tacoma Ute icon NEW: Vegas is not trying to predict the outcome though. They are trying to post a line that will promote equal betting on both sides. A bookie might think Utah is going to win by 21 but he's going to make the line USC -3 if he thinks that will bring... (short)
Tacoma Ute - Top 25 Poster -- Friday 23 October 2015, at 11:52 am [ID# 1774374] [reply]
(1)
o NEW: I read an article somewhere that this is a common misconception.
Utehawk15 - -- Friday 23 October 2015, at 11:56 am [ID# 1774377] [reply]
(1)
o NEW: I recognize that, but people still believe they're predicting outcomes. This goes to show that Vegas is not good at predicting Utah outcomes.
ironman1315 - -- Friday 23 October 2015, at 12:01 pm [ID# 1774379] [reply]
o NEW: Other than Oregon, and some last quarter surges in other games, Vegas was actually pretty good on the Utes games. (nm)
javadave - -- Friday 23 October 2015, at 12:08 pm [ID# 1774386] [reply]
Maji Man icon NEW: True, but wouldn't the pro bettors catch that the line is out of whack with real probabilities and lay money until it is back in line?
Maji Man - -- Friday 23 October 2015, at 12:18 pm [ID# 1774392] [reply]
(1)
o NEW: Not so fast -Vegas doesn't disrepect anybody
Ute_reprobate - -- Friday 23 October 2015, at 12:09 pm [ID# 1774389] [reply]
(6)
DownhereUte icon NEW: This is interesting
DownhereUte - -- Friday 23 October 2015, at 12:20 pm [ID# 1774393] [reply]
Tacoma Ute icon NEW: They are trying to get equal money bet on each side, not equal total bets. Lots of times Team A may have as much as 84% of all bets but the 16% who bet on TEam B bet much more money. It happens all the time. (nm)
Tacoma Ute - Top 25 Poster -- Friday 23 October 2015, at 12:46 pm [ID# 1774405] [reply]
(1)
DownhereUte icon NEW: Ah good point. So 75% of people betting on this game are cheaper than the 25% choosing USC. So which side shows more confidence in their bet, the population or the dollars? (nm)
DownhereUte - -- Friday 23 October 2015, at 02:04 pm [ID# 1774430] [reply]
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