Seemed like an obvious 4 down situation. As well as they were running the ball and as crappy as the pass game was, I would have run on 3rd. Worst case is that you have a 4th and manageable.
We see this happen all the time. Teams find themselves in a clear four-down situation but they're so desperate to avoid fourth down that they throw on third--thus leaving themselves in an obvious and predictable throwing situation on fourth if they don't convert.
I say if you're in a four-down situation, treat third down like it's second down. Don't be afraid to run to set up a manageable fourth down.
1. Cal hasn't faced a rushing attack like ours all year, and they haven't been good against the run so far. We'll run for close to 300 against them.
2. Cal's pass defense is ranked in the 90s nationally, and have played mostly teams with freshman or not very good QBs. Hell, they made the Texas QB look like a Heisman candidate, and he's terrible. The one thing they do well is capitalize on mistakes, and Wilson doesn't make many mistakes.
3. Goff hasn't faced a front 7 like ours all year. WSU's front 7 is not very good and they still got 3 sacks. I expect us to get 5+ against them.
4. Our starting DBs are great at pressing and haven't gotten truly beaten deep since Michigan. Sure, USU had two long completions, but the DB was all over the WR both times and the receiver somehow made an incredible catch. We keep Cal's receivers jammed up for 2-3 seconds and that pocket collapses.
5. Utah is a better team than Cal, and we have a disciplined coach (unlike USC) who will keep his players from buying into the hype. Utah will be tested, but I see them winning this one by 17 or more. I'll go Utes 41 Bears 24.
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