Utah -vs- BYU Graphical Analysis

Posted By: Ancient Ute (209.63.65.239)
Date: Monday, 2 August 1999, at 12:29 p.m.

Over the past few weeks, I have noticed a certain amount of optimism among BYU fans with the approaching football season. (I know, they have little else to look forward to once basketball season starts, but that is beside the point.) They seem almost gleeful about the approaching season -- giddy that they were able to narrowly escape Ryan Kaneshiro's famous “doinked” field goal attempt last year and go on to lose to both Air Force and Tulane, finishing the season at 9-5. But is BYU really *the* team in the MWC in 1999? And what of the Utes? Sure, most Ute fans are disappointed about certain debacles that occurred last season, and many are skeptical about 1999. But are the Utes really that far off from the Cougars?

Consider 1998 for a moment.

I found some interesting statistics at the Salt Lake Tribune website, which I have graphically represented below.

This graphic shows the 1998-99 records of the “big 3” sports at Utah and BYU. (I know, the Utes have always sucked at baseball, but I included it anyway for a little balance). If you look at the football column, you will notice that the Utes were 7-4 in 1998 for a winning percentage of 63.6%. And even though the Cougars beat Utah and went 9-5 on the year, their winning percentage was 64.3%. That a difference of a mere 0.7%. So why are the Cougar fans so optimistic about the upcoming season while the Ute fans are so pessimistic? (Don’t answer that – I know the reasons – the question was merely rhetorical.)

That fact is, Utah Football and BYU Football are not that far away from each other when it comes to success or quality. In fact, if you were to use this same comparison as far back as 1994, you would find that Utah has a cumulative record of 38-19 (67%) whereas BYU has a cumulative record of 46-18 (72%). That’s a mere winning-percentage difference of 5% in favor of BYU, and that includes the anomalous year of 1996 when BYU went 14-1 (skewing the normal relationship greatly).

So when (some) BYU fans come onto our site full of the smug knowledge that they are tabbed #1 in the conference by most pundits, and that they confidently beat us (by a mere 2 points) last year, just remember how close those tables were to being turned the other way.

And now for the fun part.

While these two teams are incredibly close in football, the difference in basketball is not even funny. Of course this is not saying anything we don’t already know, but when you compare our basketball advantage with the relative closeness in the football column it shows that the Utes have a distinct athletic advantage in the major sports. In fact, even when you add in baseball (where the Utes traditionally suck and the Cougars usually excel), the records for 1999 show that the Utes can hold their own with the zoobs. Thus, in 1998-99, the Utes’ basketball prowess greatly swung the balance, giving them a cumulative winning percentage edge of nearly 12% (as illustrated in the charts below).

I know this analysis doesn’t count for squat, but what the heck. All’s fair in love and rivalry, right? (At least it is if you can make a plausible argument.) So way to go, Utes. Let’s hope the average domination of the major sports continues for many years to come.

-- GO UTES !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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